Greening Up on the Exchange, the Honest John Way

Every morning when I put the three selections up, something interesting happens. Very often, one or more of them shorten in price as the day goes on. That is not magic, it is simply what happens when you keep picking horses with solid form.

For most casual punters, that just feels nice. You got the “early price”, the horse looks well backed, and if it wins you pat yourself on the back. But there is another way of looking at it. If the price moves in your favour before the race even starts, there is an opportunity to quietly lock in a small profit and walk away.

That is all greening up is. You back a horse at one price, lay it at a shorter price later, and fix a profit whatever happens. No flashing ladders, no software, no shouting at the screen. Just a bit of old fashioned value, tidied up.

Back Early, Lay Later

The basic idea is very simple. In the morning, you back a horse at a decent price because you believe, for good reason, that the odds are too big. Later on, when other people notice the same thing and the price comes in, you lay the same horse at the shorter odds.

If you get the numbers right, the win bet and the lay bet cancel each other out in such a way that you are left with a small, fixed profit. The race can win, lose, fall at the first or be beaten in a photo, and it does not matter. You have “greened up”.

The good news is, you do not need any specialist trading software to do this. If you have an account with an exchange like Smarkets or Matchbook, you already have everything you need.

Why My Danger Horse Is Often the Trade Horse

Each day I put up three horses in races that I feel are fair and sensible:

• A likely winner.
• A big danger.
• A value each way.

The funny thing is, it is often the danger that moves most in the market. The winner type is usually well found already. The danger is the one where the figures say, “this is better than people think”, and the market slowly catches up during the morning.

That makes the danger horse a very good candidate for greening up. It has the solid form and ratings to attract money, but the early tissue price is sometimes a bit too generous.

A Typical Green-Up Day

Here is how a simple, low stress green-up day might look:

• You visit the Daily Runners page with your morning brew.
• You note the race and the three horses I have highlighted.
• You decide which one is the trade horse for today, usually the danger.
• You look at the current exchange price and back it for a sensible stake.
• You then use the Trade Out / Green Up calculator on this site to work out a lay price and stake that give you a small, guaranteed profit if it is matched.
• You place that lay order at the shorter odds on your exchange and leave it sitting there.

As the morning goes on, the market firms up. If the horse shortens as expected, your lay bet is matched and your profit is locked in. You do not have to sit at the computer watching it like a hawk. You can get on with your day.

When It Makes Sense, and When It Does Not

Like everything on this site, the idea is not to turn you into a full time trader, it is to give you another sensible option. Sometimes greening up makes perfect sense. Sometimes it is better to just have the bet and enjoy the race.

As a rough guide, greening up works best when:

• The race is on the All-Weather or on good to soft ground, not in a bog.
• The race is a fair handicap with a sensible field size, not a 25 runner lottery.
• The horse has solid recent form and is not coming back from a long layoff.
• The early price is somewhere between about 4/1 and 14/1. Shorter prices do not move as much, massive outsiders may not move at all.

It is not ideal for messy novice races, heavy ground handicaps or anything where the form book is more guesswork than guide. In those cases, a small fun bet or no bet at all is usually the wiser choice.

Keeping It Simple

You will see people online using all sorts of tools and graphs to trade races in and out all day. That is fine if it is your hobby and you enjoy watching every tick. My version is much simpler.

One race. One horse. One back bet and one lay bet, worked out with a calculator. If the price does not move, nothing has been lost except a small bit of commission. If it does move, you have a green figure on your screen and one less thing to worry about.

You can also use this approach alongside the existing three horse dutching method. For example, you might:

• Use the dutching calculator to have your usual small flutter across the three runners.
• Pick the strongest of the three on the exchange, usually the danger.
• Back and lay that same horse to lock in a little extra on top.

The key, as always, is to keep the stakes sensible. This is not about chasing big money, it is about using the information we already have to shave a bit of extra value out of the day.

The Honest John View

I still believe the most important things in racing are:

• Small stakes you can genuinely afford.
• Clear choices and simple methods.
• The enjoyment of following a horse, not the stress of chasing losses.

Greening up is just another little tool in that spirit. If my form work means a horse shortens from 10.0 down to 6.0 during the morning, it seems a pity not to quietly bank a few pounds from that move, even if the race itself goes wrong.

As always, use it if it suits you, ignore it if it does not. The core of Honest John will always be straight talking, small stakes and steady profits. If this green-up idea helps you nudge the “steady” part along a little bit further, then it has done its job.